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Global Mining Investing is a reference eBook to teach investors how to think and act as investors with a underlying theme of managing risk. The book touches on a huge amount of content which heavily relies on knowledge that can only be obtained through experience...The text was engaging, as I knew the valuable outcome was to be a better thinker and investor.

While some books (such as Coulson’s An Insider’s Guide to the Mining Sector) focus on one particular commodity this book (Global Mining Investing) attempts (and does well) to cover all types of mining and commodities.

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Monday, September 28, 2015

The US & Chinese equity market outlook for late 2015 into 2016

In my last post on 18th August 2015 I forecast that the US and China were destined to enter recession. The reason for saying so is the subject of this article, however it needs to be acknowledged that the recession is destined to be 'short-lived', or simply a 'crisis of confidence'. There is no reason to expect mass employment, or foreclosures. The problem will simply be an absence of spending and falling asset prices. The reason for the falling prices will simply be:

  1. The inability of the Fed to convince the investing public that there is destined to be a recovery soon
  2. The fact that the market thinks asset prices are over-priced
  3. The difficulty of resorting to more stimulus at this time - again - given that the first stimulus didn't fix what ails the economy
  4. The fact the equity/property boom have been long-winded - worthy of a break
Having wrote that article, the US and Chinese markets collapsed. Now we are at a point where the Chinese and US markets are about to turn - the question is - which way? The fact is that there is hardly any recognition that the US is at a weak point. US business inventories are weak, confidence is poor. No one is spending money, and Obama wants to look good. Are we going to see any big spending initiatives at this point? I don't think so. He cannot serve another term, so we can expect that it could only be a new president who would do that. We can therefore expect confidence to be poor until the middle of next year. That's effectively at least a short 9-month recession. Mind you, given the US people appear set to elect a maverick, then you might conclude that is reason for more investor 'unease'. It is nevertheless good to see. It is however destabilising. 

Look at this chart - this is what the Chinese market is about to do - fall to 2500 points. I show in the first chart that 2500pts is support. This is not a crisis market, so its not going to 2000pts in my opinion. You can see the flag structure in the 2nd chart below. 

The US market however is the more important market. It is overpriced because of the very low prevailing interest rates. Interest rates are not going to rise; asset prices are going to fall, and that will scare some people, having fallen already. The US Dow Jones is going to 14,000 pts, as you can see in the following graphic.


















As you can see the market is already half way to its support level of 14,000pts. In fact, I think it will find more support at 15,000pts, and finally at 14,000pts. We can probably count on a Xmas rally, and then a March-May 2016 sell-off as the election looms in November 2016. The implication is that after the recovery off the 14,000pt support, 2016 is going to be a very flat year for equities. Its hard to say with 2017 given that it will depend on the capacity of the leader to build a consensus.


Asian property markets outperforming Japan Foreclosed Guide Philippines Property Guide

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Investment Strategy

If you are investing for the long term, you still need an investment strategy. Dont be fooled by the rhetoric of fund managers. The reason they advise you to 'buy & hold' is because they dont want to compete with you in sell-offs. Markets and industrial sectors are cyclical, so they demand trading to get the best returns. Fund managers actually cant hope to match the performance of small investors (if you are half good) because they have to manage huge amounts of funds and charge you a fee besides.
MY ADVICE is (i) look at a range of market indices and decide upon what level of correction would give you the justification you need to get in & out of the market. It might be a 5-10% retracement or a break of trend. (ii) Diversify if you dont have an intimate knowledge of the company or management. More than 30% in one company is aggressive.

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The NZ property market is shaping up as one of the most attractive property investment markets for the next few years. High yielding property and the collapse of the NZD make NZ the perfect counter-cyclical investment if you buy right! In addition, there is no capital gains tax, transfer taxes, VAT/GST or wealth taxes in NZ, so rest assured that NZ property is tax-effective! Learn more now!

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