There are a lot of people making a lot of fuss about the prospect of Greece defaulting on its debt. It sounds serious because Greece is a sovereign country, so we are bombarded with dire scenarios. The reality is that there are three prospects which can result from this predicament:
1. Loss of membership: Greece and countries which adopt lower standards of financial discipline are kicked out of the monetary union. They are forced to establish their own currency, or establish a common 'Mediterranean' currency, which might even become a popular standard by countries in the Euro Area which are not able to join the Euro Union. This is not a silly idea. The values which divide Northern and Southern Europe are significant.
2. Euro support: The Euro Zone is concerned about the collapse of its member countries, and so it offers unconditional support for Greece and the other dubious Euro countries.
3. Negotiated settlement: The Euro Union talks up the notion of supporting Greece and other Euro countries in "dire straits", then engages in a protracted process of negotiating a set of conditions for retention of inclusion in the Euro Union. The political party looks good because they resolved the problem, they are forgiven by the Greek people because their austerity measures are a necessary price to pay, because everyone understands the importance of being in the Euro Union.....or don't they?
Either way, it makes no difference to the Euro Union. Whether Greece and the others are kicked out makes no difference. It would be a logical divide if these countries ended up going their own way. The Mediterranean countries have different values, so its appropriate they have a different values, so they can remain the industrial backwater they want to be, where lifestyle means more than money-making. Either way, whether they decide to adopt austerity measures or adopt a diminished currency, who needs to worry, they account for such a small portion of global GDP, why care? The Greeks will do what they do best....eat and drink.....and chat.
For more background info on this issue - here is a good article.
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Andrew Sheldon www.sheldonthinks.com
1. Loss of membership: Greece and countries which adopt lower standards of financial discipline are kicked out of the monetary union. They are forced to establish their own currency, or establish a common 'Mediterranean' currency, which might even become a popular standard by countries in the Euro Area which are not able to join the Euro Union. This is not a silly idea. The values which divide Northern and Southern Europe are significant.
2. Euro support: The Euro Zone is concerned about the collapse of its member countries, and so it offers unconditional support for Greece and the other dubious Euro countries.
3. Negotiated settlement: The Euro Union talks up the notion of supporting Greece and other Euro countries in "dire straits", then engages in a protracted process of negotiating a set of conditions for retention of inclusion in the Euro Union. The political party looks good because they resolved the problem, they are forgiven by the Greek people because their austerity measures are a necessary price to pay, because everyone understands the importance of being in the Euro Union.....or don't they?
Either way, it makes no difference to the Euro Union. Whether Greece and the others are kicked out makes no difference. It would be a logical divide if these countries ended up going their own way. The Mediterranean countries have different values, so its appropriate they have a different values, so they can remain the industrial backwater they want to be, where lifestyle means more than money-making. Either way, whether they decide to adopt austerity measures or adopt a diminished currency, who needs to worry, they account for such a small portion of global GDP, why care? The Greeks will do what they do best....eat and drink.....and chat.
For more background info on this issue - here is a good article.
----------------------------------------------
Andrew Sheldon www.sheldonthinks.com
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