The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 358.41 points overnight, that's more than 3%, closing at 11,453 pts. I had previously said support was around 11,680 pts, however these things are not cut and dry. Support can come at the tip of candle wicks, or at the candle bars themselves. The market is in an interesting position because:
1. The Dow fell a great deal, and it closed at a support level
2. The Dow closed at its low for the day
I consider this information as inconclusive, so I will be looking for a strong OR weak day from the Dow overnight. The Asian market can only take its money off the table, or try to anticipate what will happen based on the trading action in today's trading action. Might Fed chairman Ben Bernacke try to comfort the market with talk of a rate cut, or oil prices might rally further. Actually in trading oil prices have fallen back to $138/barrel. The USD is mixed in cross trading. The gold price is looking good. Might have to wait for the US market to open. I expect it to hold, but if its breaks the next support is 11,000 pts.
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Andrew Sheldon
www.sheldonthinks.com
Investment Strategy
If you are investing for the long term, you still need an investment strategy. Dont be fooled by the rhetoric of fund managers. The reason they advise you to 'buy & hold' is because they dont want to compete with you in sell-offs. Markets and industrial sectors are cyclical, so they demand trading to get the best returns. Fund managers actually cant hope to match the performance of small investors (if you are half good) because they have to manage huge amounts of funds and charge you a fee besides.
MY ADVICE is (i) look at a range of market indices and decide upon what level of correction would give you the justification you need to get in & out of the market. It might be a 5-10% retracement or a break of trend. (ii) Diversify if you dont have an intimate knowledge of the company or management. More than 30% in one company is aggressive.
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