Its interesting that Lehmans is in 'free fall'. I was talking to a consultant to the Asian Development Bank and Macquarie Bank about 4 weeks ago, and he was saying that Lehmans was in real trouble. Its interesting how this information doesn't find its way onto the market for so long. Great opportunity to short sell I guess. :)
Someone suggested that this credit crunch would result in the failure of about 40 small banks. So far it seems to be the larger banks which are failing. SocGen, Lehmans. Fannie Mae, Freddie Mae.
Anyway, you get the impression that senior people in the market know the extent of the problems, just this information is not conveyed to the market. I guess that shouldn't surprise anyone.
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Andrew Sheldon
www.sheldonthinks.com
Investment Strategy
If you are investing for the long term, you still need an investment strategy. Dont be fooled by the rhetoric of fund managers. The reason they advise you to 'buy & hold' is because they dont want to compete with you in sell-offs. Markets and industrial sectors are cyclical, so they demand trading to get the best returns. Fund managers actually cant hope to match the performance of small investors (if you are half good) because they have to manage huge amounts of funds and charge you a fee besides.
MY ADVICE is (i) look at a range of market indices and decide upon what level of correction would give you the justification you need to get in & out of the market. It might be a 5-10% retracement or a break of trend. (ii) Diversify if you dont have an intimate knowledge of the company or management. More than 30% in one company is aggressive.
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