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Global Mining Investing is a reference eBook to teach investors how to think and act as investors with a underlying theme of managing risk. The book touches on a huge amount of content which heavily relies on knowledge that can only be obtained through experience...The text was engaging, as I knew the valuable outcome was to be a better thinker and investor.

While some books (such as Coulson’s An Insider’s Guide to the Mining Sector) focus on one particular commodity this book (Global Mining Investing) attempts (and does well) to cover all types of mining and commodities.

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Friday, February 13, 2009

Where to put your money in uncertain times

In these uncertain times people will be wondering where to place their money. Firstly there was no question there was going to be a financial crisis - it was merely a question of when. WHEN the Dow and other markets broke historic support, it was only a question of HOW far will it for, and HOW much money will the government through at the problem to delay the inevitable.

I will suggest a strategy forward. A lot of generalisations are made, so I will offer specific investment opportunities. This is however a top-down analysis:

1. Gold mining stocks - Stimulus will eventually result in governments printing money.

2. Precious metals - Silver, platinum, palladium are all good. They are not as good as stocks because stocks have greater leverage as mining revenues rise faster than costs. Also gold stocks were over-sold in the recent stock price correction. Silver has risen 50% in just two months.

3. CFDs or derivatives in precious metals – This is another form of exposure to precious metals – whether you are talking about options, futures, or contracts for difference - mind you, you are taking a counterparty risk.

4. Foreclosed property in Japan - outlook not great now, but great yields outside the city, premature to buy in the city CBDs. Outer fringe areas make great buying, rural areas always good for lifestyle. Sooo cheap! You could buy a house for as little as $10-20,000 due to depopulation.

5. Broad Stocks: People are very negative on broad stocks: By that I mean all stocks outside the precious metals arena. I think if you cannot buy stock exposure for the long term, but there is no reason why you cannot trade rallies using chart signals. People look at the 1970s and 1930s and look at the dismal returns, but there were rallies in this period. So I suggest learning and using charts to trade medium term rallies. No long term ‘buy & hold’ investing.

6. Rural property in NZ - City property is overpriced, but if you don’t need to work in the city, or want to rent, then prices are modest, and the NZD is at a low point for foreigners earning USD,JPY,EUR. The NZD has fallen from USD0.80 to USD0.50. So great currency trade in beautiful country, no capital gains tax or transfer taxes, no GST on property. People will say the economy is in bad shape. Yeh, that's why it’s cheap. It’s a counter-cyclical investment, but when cheap, sell when currency recovers in 4-5 years. The 9% budget deficit will turn around like it did in the 1990s. Expect compulsory super to boost savings.

7. Property in the Philippines - regional property is more appealing, as it will benefit from more call centres going there. Yes, during a contraction, Western call centres are still shifting to the Philippines. More are being set up in smaller regional centres rather than Metro Manila as the infrastructure improves.
You can find more info by searching Google for foreclosed property. A lot of Westerners are doing it, and it makes sense if you are living there for a few years. Japan & the Philippines property markets are among the most under-leveraged and did not have the big gains. That will be important when the global economic activity finally picks up.

8. Foreclosed property in USA: It is still too premature to buy foreclosed property in the USA; I would suggest waiting until the bottom which will likely correspond with a peak in the Adjustable Rate Mortgage terms, so say another 8 months. Again we are looking for yields, so let that be your guide to where. Unless you are seeing rental yields over 10% then you are not getting good value.

9. Currency: Currencies are an interest asset class because they are essentially priced in relative terms as opposed to the absolute value of other asset classes. My favourites are:

a. South African Rand: South Africa is the largest producer of gold, palladium and platinum in the world, so the terms of trade for RSA are going to improve greatly as precious metal prices rise. The unfortunate aspect is that this will drive many mining companies broke as the strong Rand will undermine Rand revenues. So avoid RSA mining stocks.

b. Chinese Yuan: As long as China is the lowest cost producer and has the capacity to generate its own internal demand it will do relatively better, which is what currencies are about.

c. Swiss Francs: Governments and the elite of the world have much of their assets in Switzerland as they have done for hundreds of years. Thus Switzerland is always a safe investment.

d. Japanese Yen: I can expect the USD will fall to 87yen/$ support in future, though no further as the US economy has underlying strength.

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Over the years, this ebook has been enhanced with additional research to offer a comprehensive appraisal of the Japanese foreclosed property market, as well as offering economic and industry analysis. The author travels to Japan regularly to keep abreast of the local market conditions, and has purchased several foreclosed properties, as well as bidding on others. Japan is one of the few markets offering high-yielding property investment opportunities. Contrary to the 'rural depopulation' scepticism, the urban centres are growing, and they have always been a magnet for expatriates in Asia. Japan is a place where expats, investors (big or small) can make highly profitable real estate investments. Japan is a large market, with a plethora of cheap properties up for tender by the courts. Few other Western nations offer such cheap property so close to major infrastructure. Japan is unique in this respect, and it offers such a different life experience, which also makes it special. There is a plethora of property is depopulating rural areas, however there are fortnightly tenders offering plenty of property in Japan's cities as well. I bought a dormitory 1hr from Tokyo for just $US30,000.
You can view foreclosed properties listed for as little as $US10,000 in Japan thanks to depopulation and a culture that is geared towards working for the state. I bought foreclosed properties in Japan and now I reveal all in our expanded 350+page report. The information you need to know, strategies to apply, where to get help, and the tools to use. We even help you avoid the tsunami and nuclear risks since I was a geologist/mining finance analyst in a past life. Check out the "feedback" in our blog for stories of success by customers of our previous reports.

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The Philippines property market remains one of the strongest in Asia thanks to rising incomes, rising population and rapid rates of urbanisation. The administrative reforms of the Arroyo government have given way to improved administration under Aquino. ASEAN countries can be expected to achieve even greater price gains than Western markets, demonstrating that this super cycle is far from over.

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Investment Strategy

If you are investing for the long term, you still need an investment strategy. Dont be fooled by the rhetoric of fund managers. The reason they advise you to 'buy & hold' is because they dont want to compete with you in sell-offs. Markets and industrial sectors are cyclical, so they demand trading to get the best returns. Fund managers actually cant hope to match the performance of small investors (if you are half good) because they have to manage huge amounts of funds and charge you a fee besides.
MY ADVICE is (i) look at a range of market indices and decide upon what level of correction would give you the justification you need to get in & out of the market. It might be a 5-10% retracement or a break of trend. (ii) Diversify if you dont have an intimate knowledge of the company or management. More than 30% in one company is aggressive.

'Buying NZ Property – Download the free sample readings!

The NZ property market is shaping up as one of the most attractive property investment markets for the next few years. High yielding property and the collapse of the NZD make NZ the perfect counter-cyclical investment if you buy right! In addition, there is no capital gains tax, transfer taxes, VAT/GST or wealth taxes in NZ, so rest assured that NZ property is tax-effective! Learn more now!

New Zealand Property Report 2010 - Download the table of contents or buy this report at our online store for just $US19.95.