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Global Mining Investing is a reference eBook to teach investors how to think and act as investors with a underlying theme of managing risk. The book touches on a huge amount of content which heavily relies on knowledge that can only be obtained through experience...The text was engaging, as I knew the valuable outcome was to be a better thinker and investor.

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Monday, May 11, 2009

ASX-200 set for a rally

I have indicated already that I see a hard time for the US economy. There is nevertheless the prospect of more stimulus in the US, and I would not be surprised to see a tax on energy. We have the prospect of carbon credits trading in the US, as in other countries. This issue awaits the Copenhagen Summit. I would not however be surprised to see these governments agree to just tax energy consumption since that will allow them to control the cash. Really it was all just a rationalisation to create another indirect tax.
The chart to the right suggests that the ASX stock index has broken through resistance at 3,845. Having convincingly done so, the market has once again pulled back to support at that level. I suggest this is an opportunity to buy.
The reason the ASX200 is looking so positive is because of the positive shape of the Australian economy. The positives are its agricultural and mineral export base. This is positive in several respects. China is talking about buying up commodities, which means commodity prices are going to stay relatively strong, or at least stronger than they otherwise would, so we can expect the ASX market to trade higher as well. This also helps support some of those projects which would otherwise be cancelled, as I am sure that a good deal of investment will be going into mining/mine equity as well as commodity inventories. So we can expect a lot of investment in Australian resources, and that's across the board - coal, iron ore, copper, gold, nickel and ENERGY. There are some large LNG projects on the table. Australian tourism is very weak despite the weak dollar, though that fabulous Qld govt campaign promotion for the 'Best Job in the World' will help.
So basically I am expecting the ASX-200 to climb to 4360 level in coming year, though I think that will be the top of the market. The China factor will stop Australia sinking back to lows, but it will mean the AUD and equities just trading in a higher channel band. The flipside is that the market might go sideways longer, but I don't think so, as I don't think China will be dumping commodities in a hurry.
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Andrew Sheldon www.sheldonthinks.com
Posted by Andrew Sheldon at 11:03 PM
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Investment Strategy

If you are investing for the long term, you still need an investment strategy. Dont be fooled by the rhetoric of fund managers. The reason they advise you to 'buy & hold' is because they dont want to compete with you in sell-offs. Markets and industrial sectors are cyclical, so they demand trading to get the best returns. Fund managers actually cant hope to match the performance of small investors (if you are half good) because they have to manage huge amounts of funds and charge you a fee besides.
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