The market is coming off significantly at present, and given that it has failed to breach previous resistance and there seems no prospect of support from the central banks, there is good reason to expect a significant correction. This has us looking for significant support levels:
1. The 10,550 level in the Dow Jones - we need to be watching for a breach of the uptrend since 2008.
2. The 4,000 level in the ASX-200 - there is a shorter support of 4300, which might be a more probable support if the Dow Jones breaks its uptrend.
The implication is that there will be good buying as the market confronts these vulnerabilities.
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Investment Strategy
If you are investing for the long term, you still need an investment strategy. Dont be fooled by the rhetoric of fund managers. The reason they advise you to 'buy & hold' is because they dont want to compete with you in sell-offs. Markets and industrial sectors are cyclical, so they demand trading to get the best returns. Fund managers actually cant hope to match the performance of small investors (if you are half good) because they have to manage huge amounts of funds and charge you a fee besides.
MY ADVICE is (i) look at a range of market indices and decide upon what level of correction would give you the justification you need to get in & out of the market. It might be a 5-10% retracement or a break of trend. (ii) Diversify if you dont have an intimate knowledge of the company or management. More than 30% in one company is aggressive.
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