Global Mining Investing $69.95, 2 Volume e-Book Set. Buy here.
Author, Andrew Sheldon

Global Mining Investing is a reference eBook to teach investors how to think and act as investors with a underlying theme of managing risk. The book touches on a huge amount of content which heavily relies on knowledge that can only be obtained through experience...The text was engaging, as I knew the valuable outcome was to be a better thinker and investor.

While some books (such as Coulson’s An Insider’s Guide to the Mining Sector) focus on one particular commodity this book (Global Mining Investing) attempts (and does well) to cover all types of mining and commodities.

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Wednesday, August 24, 2005

Historical Economic cycles

The global economy has undergone a number of important expansions over history. In recent history, these included:
  1. 1904-1929: This period ended with the Great Depression (25 years).
  2. 1947-1974: This period was ended with the early 1970s oil crisis (27 years).
  3. 1982-2003+: The current cycle has yet to reach an end (21 years to date).
expansion has undergone 3 major sub-rallies:
  1. 1st cycle: This lastest from 1982 to 1990. It was ended by higher oil prices and inflation.
  2. 2nd cycle: This latest from 1992 to 2000. It was ended by the dot-com crash.
  3. 3rd cycle: This started in May 2003.

These cycles are often said to be driven by technology, but really they are being driven by monetary credit cycles. Only in `easy monetary conditions` do a range of technologies get funded. These cycles collapse only when the stimulus which sustained them can no longer be sustained. Slowing productivity gives way to higher inflation. The opening up of China & other 3rd world markets have extended this cycle by keeping inflationary pressures subdued.

We do need however to recognise that whilst inflationary pressures have been minimised as industrial capacity has shifted from developed countries to developing countries, this cycle has been stifled by lack of reform in the EU and Japan - the 2nd and 3rd largest markets, and ultimately 2 of the 3 major consumers of producer country products. With US consumer capacity max`ed out, the capacity of these 2 economies to carry the burden is poor. This has to be inflationary, particularly when combined with monetary policy.

Despite the loss of jobs in western markets, US employment is fully employed. To some extent there are early retirees as wealth explodes, whilst a great many workers are migrating into the service sector.

There is some expectation China & other developing economies will extend this cycle, but what of the developed countries - Japan and EU - which are stifling it. Japan is at least showing signs of reform, but it will take time.

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Over the years, this ebook has been enhanced with additional research to offer a comprehensive appraisal of the Japanese foreclosed property market, as well as offering economic and industry analysis. The author travels to Japan regularly to keep abreast of the local market conditions, and has purchased several foreclosed properties, as well as bidding on others. Japan is one of the few markets offering high-yielding property investment opportunities. Contrary to the 'rural depopulation' scepticism, the urban centres are growing, and they have always been a magnet for expatriates in Asia. Japan is a place where expats, investors (big or small) can make highly profitable real estate investments. Japan is a large market, with a plethora of cheap properties up for tender by the courts. Few other Western nations offer such cheap property so close to major infrastructure. Japan is unique in this respect, and it offers such a different life experience, which also makes it special. There is a plethora of property is depopulating rural areas, however there are fortnightly tenders offering plenty of property in Japan's cities as well. I bought a dormitory 1hr from Tokyo for just $US30,000.
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The Philippines property market remains one of the strongest in Asia thanks to rising incomes, rising population and rapid rates of urbanisation. The administrative reforms of the Arroyo government have given way to improved administration under Aquino. ASEAN countries can be expected to achieve even greater price gains than Western markets, demonstrating that this super cycle is far from over.

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Investment Strategy

If you are investing for the long term, you still need an investment strategy. Dont be fooled by the rhetoric of fund managers. The reason they advise you to 'buy & hold' is because they dont want to compete with you in sell-offs. Markets and industrial sectors are cyclical, so they demand trading to get the best returns. Fund managers actually cant hope to match the performance of small investors (if you are half good) because they have to manage huge amounts of funds and charge you a fee besides.
MY ADVICE is (i) look at a range of market indices and decide upon what level of correction would give you the justification you need to get in & out of the market. It might be a 5-10% retracement or a break of trend. (ii) Diversify if you dont have an intimate knowledge of the company or management. More than 30% in one company is aggressive.

'Buying NZ Property – Download the free sample readings!

The NZ property market is shaping up as one of the most attractive property investment markets for the next few years. High yielding property and the collapse of the NZD make NZ the perfect counter-cyclical investment if you buy right! In addition, there is no capital gains tax, transfer taxes, VAT/GST or wealth taxes in NZ, so rest assured that NZ property is tax-effective! Learn more now!

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