ASX Index destined to fall

The ASX is likely to take a fall in the next week as fears of 'bird flu' are re-visited, with the escalation of concern over Swine flu. The ascension of Swine flu as an issue after the Bird flu suggests that this problem does not just go away. Unless the Western World can force the developing world to comply, then the global economy remains under threat. Of course just as we have tsunami warning systems in place to warn us of impending doom, we can all stay at home for 5 days when another strain is discovered. On reflection I think it would be more helpful if the developing world just improved their standards of animal husbandry. Of course this will take some time to achieve, as policy makers are challenging the thought process of some shallow, stoic collectivists, but this is what needs to occur.
The implication is that we will be looking at a few scares over the next few years as a plethora of new viral strains keep you and the rest of the world in isolation. Of course this will decimate consumer and business demand. Unless the politicians act quickly, we will be looking at depression. Will they let that occur? Not before flooding the economy with money. But what they don't realise, is that more money will not prompt people to spend. The implication is that once again the governments of the world are left without a viable monetary tool to stimulate economic activity. Do I expect them to pick up the 'sensible public policy' spade and do some work towards bringing some sanity to the Third World....no. I don't think they are so effective. I think after a few years Asia will wake up themselves and realise that 'It really is an objective reality'. That we cannot ignore cause and effect. Well herein lies my hope. :(
At this point I am reminded of a quote from The Fountainhead by one of Ayn Rand's characters, the exact quote I cannot provide, but its something like this.
Person A: So you play the stock market. What do you invest in?
Person B: Human souls...and I sell short.
Well when it comes to public administration, so do I. I think you can expect the market to tumble soon, and it will not just be the bird flu, but the forthcoming escalation in ARM resets. This is a time to go short on indices and stocks. But wait for the market to signal such a move. We are looking for that bird line to be broken, signalling a change of trend.
There is of course the possibility of an injection of more government money, but actually I don't expect this to help. I think the market is going down regardless.
------------------------------------------------
Andrew Sheldon www.sheldonthinks.com