Global Mining Investing $69.95, 2 Volume e-Book Set. Buy here.
Author, Andrew Sheldon

Global Mining Investing is a reference eBook to teach investors how to think and act as investors with a underlying theme of managing risk. The book touches on a huge amount of content which heavily relies on knowledge that can only be obtained through experience...The text was engaging, as I knew the valuable outcome was to be a better thinker and investor.

While some books (such as Coulson’s An Insider’s Guide to the Mining Sector) focus on one particular commodity this book (Global Mining Investing) attempts (and does well) to cover all types of mining and commodities.

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Tuesday, April 28, 2009

Swine Influenza Virus (SIV) poses market risk

The Swine Influenza Virus (SIV) would have to rank as one of the greatest market risks at this time. The risks posed are that this virus could be far more contagious than any other. We don't just have to worry about the communicability of the current strain, but the possibility that a more virulent strain will develop over time. I would also suggest to you a degree of inevitability exists with respect to pandemics. The longer that we defer a pandemic, the more virulent the forthcoming attack will be on humans, or at least some humans who have not been vacinated. I would therefore encourage everyone to get vaccinated for influenza. Of course that is not going to immune your investments from being stung. Even precious metals and related mining stocks will come under attack I believe because any threat posed is 'deflationary', and there is technical downside to the precious metals market. Lets consider the risks:
1. The mere threat of SIV is an intangible, which means that there will be a gradual escalation of concern about the issue as evidence grows, and the signs of threat become more apparent. Intangibility has two sides to it, it can place it off your radar screen (as an investor) or it can mean the downside is not well understood. In this first stage, the former is the more prevalent.
2. Actual fear of a pandemic will result in people not going out for entertainment, they will stop spending, they will reduce their level of economic activity and just save, maintaining the simplest lifestyle. The result will be greater levels of unemployment. We are therefore going to see a further contraction in the global economy and asset price deflation.
3. The paradox is that the healthy, working people who are contributing the most to economic activity are the ones who stand the greatest possibility of dying. For this reason, if these people have high savings, you might see them taking 'voluntarily redundancy'.

My belief is that if this SIV outbreak is not contained it could well cause a depression. It would be the equivalent of people losing confidence in the banking system. In fact it will start bank failures. It might even precipitate a run on the banks, and even stating as much could cause a run on the banks.

For this reason, I would be inclined to convert all investments to cash. Certainly I would be selling all derivatives at this stage, including precious metal based derivatives. The banking system is under threat. Pay off your house, stock your house with tin food, non-perishable processed foods (e.g. fruit & nut bars), cereal, long life milk, etc.

Law and order will not be as strong as it might otherwise be. There will be police voluntarily retiring to avoid any threat to their families; whom will want to avoid the virus. There will be an escalation in desperation and criminal activity, whether its people stealing food, or ignoring quarantine orders. Such depends on the capacity of the government to anticipate the threat, and to contain the fear of those who are vulnerable.

If you are looking for someone to blame - look squarely at government and yourself. These events happen because humans all too often are prepared to subjugate their lives to governments, and renounce responsibility for thinking. There is no guarantee of these events unfolding. My belief is that they will because any system is only as strong as its weakest links, or its capacity to alienate itself. If I was in government I would be shutting borders and containing the problem, or better still taking order administration of airport hotels and creating a 5-day compulsory quarantine for travellers. Discretionary travel should be ended. The problem however is that - if this virus does not mutate soon - it could mutate any time in the future. It remains in the environment. The standards of animal husbandry need to be improved. Those countries which do not have high standards need to be isolated. The financial system is not in a condition where we can afford to have this threat lingering in the environment. I just want people to conclude at the end of the day that governments are evil! They are reckless, short term, self-indulgent losers who cannot be why do you grant their system of administration. In coming months I will be outlining an alternative.

I expect stocks will sink back to their previous lows. Its possible that the market will go even lower if too many people die. At the end of the day I don't see this happening because I think it is relatively easy to overcome any outbreak. We live in an era of preserve foods. We need only isolate (or effectively quarantine) everyone in their homes for 5-days, and any threat should be over. The question is - will the government be able to coordinate that. I think there is room for confidence. There is also the possibility of having a practice run, as SIV might not be as virulent as other strains.

I posed some time ago the premise that the bird flu posed this type of threat to the economy. For the next 4 years the global economy is going to be hanging on a knife edge. When you are smoking that joint, if you are thinking nightmares, this is one scenario I would avoid contemplating. It is manageable, I just have so little confidence in government.
Andrew Sheldon
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Japan Foreclosed Property 2015-2016 - Buy this 5th edition report!

Over the years, this ebook has been enhanced with additional research to offer a comprehensive appraisal of the Japanese foreclosed property market, as well as offering economic and industry analysis. The author travels to Japan regularly to keep abreast of the local market conditions, and has purchased several foreclosed properties, as well as bidding on others. Japan is one of the few markets offering high-yielding property investment opportunities. Contrary to the 'rural depopulation' scepticism, the urban centres are growing, and they have always been a magnet for expatriates in Asia. Japan is a place where expats, investors (big or small) can make highly profitable real estate investments. Japan is a large market, with a plethora of cheap properties up for tender by the courts. Few other Western nations offer such cheap property so close to major infrastructure. Japan is unique in this respect, and it offers such a different life experience, which also makes it special. There is a plethora of property is depopulating rural areas, however there are fortnightly tenders offering plenty of property in Japan's cities as well. I bought a dormitory 1hr from Tokyo for just $US30,000.
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The Philippines property market remains one of the strongest in Asia thanks to rising incomes, rising population and rapid rates of urbanisation. The administrative reforms of the Arroyo government have given way to improved administration under Aquino. ASEAN countries can be expected to achieve even greater price gains than Western markets, demonstrating that this super cycle is far from over.

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Investment Strategy

If you are investing for the long term, you still need an investment strategy. Dont be fooled by the rhetoric of fund managers. The reason they advise you to 'buy & hold' is because they dont want to compete with you in sell-offs. Markets and industrial sectors are cyclical, so they demand trading to get the best returns. Fund managers actually cant hope to match the performance of small investors (if you are half good) because they have to manage huge amounts of funds and charge you a fee besides.
MY ADVICE is (i) look at a range of market indices and decide upon what level of correction would give you the justification you need to get in & out of the market. It might be a 5-10% retracement or a break of trend. (ii) Diversify if you dont have an intimate knowledge of the company or management. More than 30% in one company is aggressive.

'Buying NZ Property – Download the free sample readings!

The NZ property market is shaping up as one of the most attractive property investment markets for the next few years. High yielding property and the collapse of the NZD make NZ the perfect counter-cyclical investment if you buy right! In addition, there is no capital gains tax, transfer taxes, VAT/GST or wealth taxes in NZ, so rest assured that NZ property is tax-effective! Learn more now!

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